Friday, April 27, 2007

2007 NFL Draft First Round Prediction

Well folks, here it finally is. I've officially stopped reading the rumours and inside information. I'm done looking at other mock drafts. I've made up my mind and I'm putting it out into cyberspace for all to see. A few people saw a preview of my top 20 earlier this week, so I can tell you than Len Pasquerelli, John Clayton, and Mel Kiper, Jr. are ripping me off. Apparently ESPN has been teaching mind reading.

I had originally planned to do two running mock drafts, a "should draft" and "will draft". I just haven't had the time to put two divergent drafts together. I realized that I didn't know if my first list was leaning towards the "should" or the "will", so I scrapped the idea for this year. Maybe next year.

Without further ado, I present my 2007 NFL Draft First Round Prediction:

1. Oakland - JaMarcus Russell, QB
The Raiders take the logical step towards righting the ship. Sure, Russell isn't the highest rated prospect on anyone's board, but he makes the most sense for the Raiders.

2. Detroit - *TRADE* with Tampa Bay - Calvin Johnson, WR
The Lions will probably select Johnson, the best prospect in the draft, and then work out the details of a trade with Tampa Bay.

3. Cleveland - Adrian Peterson, RB
The Browns should take Brady Quinn, but the coaching staff wants to win now, they don't care about the long-term plan. Peterson is considered an elite prospect, if not a durable one.

4. Tampa Bay - *TRADE* with Detroit - Gaines Adams, DE
Matt Millen takes the presumed safe route and avoids a fan riot in Detroit. He should select either Brady Quinn or keep Calvin Johnson.

5. Arizona - Joe Thomas, OT
The Cardinals (and Matt Leinart) will be thrilled if Thomas falls into their lap. They have a terrible O-line, just ask Edgerrin James.

6. Washington - *TRADE* with Miami - Brady Quinn, QB
Washington wants to trade down and Miami needs a quarterback. The Dolphins will pounce and take Quinn before he falls to the Vikings at pick number seven.

7. Minnesota - LaRon Landry, S
The Vikings don't have a pressing need for a safety, but they would be smart to take Landry, who is considered an immediate impact starter.

8. Atlanta - Amobi Okoye, DT
Unable to trade up for Calvin Johnson and with Landry off the board, Bobby Petrino drafts one of his own. Okoye will be the youngest player ever drafted at just 19-years-old.

9. Miami - *TRADE* with Washington - Leon Hall, CB
The Redskins would probably prefer Okoye, but they would happy to simple acquire the additional picks from the Dolphins for trading down three spots.

10. Houston - Levi Brown, OT
The Texans try to upgrade their offensive line by selecting Brown. Somewhere, David Carr sheds a tear.

11. San Francisco - Patrick Willis, LB
The 49's coaching staff loves Willis after getting to know him at the Senior Bowl. ILB may not be their most pressing need, but they would love to get Willis.

12. Buffalo - Darrelle Revis, CB
Buffalo needs help at ILB, CB, and RB desperately. Marshawn Lynch is a bit of reach for the Bills here and Willis is off the board. They take the second best cornerback prospect in the draft.

13. St. Louis - Jamaal Anderson, DE
I think the Rams will consider Anderson, Adam Carriker, and Alan Branch. My best guess is that they go with Anderson.

14. Carolina - Joe Staley, OT
The consensus has been that the Panthers will select TE Greg Olsen. I read recently that the Panthers have cooled on Olsen. I'm projecting that they opt to upgrade the offensive line here because a safety would be a bit of a reach.

15. Pittsburgh - Adam Carriker, DE
This is another pick that many folks seem to agree on. The consensus is OLB Lawrence Timmons. I think the Steelers would prefer Carriker, who can play inside and outside on the defensive line. His versatility will help as the Steelers transition their defense from a 3-4 to a 4-3.

16. Green Bay - Marshawn Lynch, RB
The Packers are desperate for play makers. They would draft me if they thought I could help put points on the board.

17. Jacksonville - Jarvis Moss, DE
Most DB options would be a reach for the Jaguars at 17. They will most likely take a defensive end instead.

18. Cincinnati - Alan Branch, DT
Cincinnati will get the steal of the draft if Alan Branch falls into their lap. He was once projected as a top five pick. His stock has been hurt by over analysis. He's going to be great.

19. Tennessee - Robert Meachem, WR
I think the Titans are more likely to take the local WR, Meachem, over Ted Ginn, Jr. Meachem is taller and almost as fast. I think he'll be a better target for Vince Young and the Titan's backup QB. (Vince is the Madden 08 cover boy and will go down at some point this year.)

20. New York Giants - Lawrence Timmons, LB
The Giants would probably like Joe Staley and could draft an offensive lineman here. They probably wish they never traded for Eli Manning.

21. Denver - Anthony Spencer, DE
Denver doesn't have many holes, but could use help on the defensive line, at wide receiver, and defensive back. Spencer would upgrade their weak pass rush.

22. Dallas - Reggie Nelson, S
The Cowboys need a compliment to Roy Williams. Nelson could be the ideal pairing. Nelson is a player that I wouldn't mind seeing the Patriots draft.

23. Kansas City - Ted Ginn, Jr.
I think Ginn, Jr. is overrated. He's fast yet injury prone. The Chiefs need a receiver and could use Ginn, Jr. in the return game to replace the just traded Dante Hall.

24. New England - Aaron Ross, CB
The Patriots are the hardest team in the league to predict. They seem to take 2nd or 3rd round prospects in the first round. I wouldn't be shocked to see them take Eric Weddle, Reggie Nelson, Jon Beason, or an offensive lineman here.

25. New York Jets - Greg Olsen, TE
Olsen falls into the Jets' lap in this scenario. He's an immediate upgrade for Mangina and Pennington.

26. Philadelphia - Michael Griffin, S
The Eagles could take a S, CB, or LB. They don't need to reach for anybody and could simply take the best available player.

27. New Orleans - Chris Houston, CB
The Saints were the feel good surprise in the NFL last year. With no good ILB prospects available, the Saints should look to upgrade their DBs.

28. New England - David Harris, LB
Harris is a prototypical Patriot player. He's versatile, hard working, and coachable. I decided on this pick on Wednesday night, before I had settled on the 24th pick. Today I see that Mel Kiper, Jr. confirms the Patriots' interest in Harris.

29. Baltimore - Jon Beason, LB
The Ravens draft Beason to help replace Adalius Thomas. With Jonathan Ogden returning they don't have the same pressing need to draft an offensive lineman that they did twenty-four hours ago.

30. San Diego - Dwayne Bowe, WR
The Chargers need receiving help. Antonio Gates has been their best receiving target for a few years. Bowe is a big receiver and would probably step right into the number one role in San Diego.

31. Chicago - Paul Posluszny, LB
The Bears will probably look to draft a linebacker or defensive lineman to counter the Lance Briggs drama. They would be elated if Brady Quinn fell to them. HA!

32. Indianapolis - Justin Harrell, DT
The Colts got lucky and won a single Super Bowl. So what? Call me when they've won three of four. Harrell will help them try to match the Patriots' feat.

Monday, April 23, 2007

How Sweep It Is

Monday mornings are so much nicer when the Red Sox are coming off of a series sweep against the Yankees.  I’m not surprised by the sweep seeing who the Yanks sent out to the mound, but I am surprised by how much our top three starters struggled.  The bullpen continues to be a very pleasant surprise, stopping the bleeding and saving all three games this weekend.

Francona has been a brilliant maestro so far this season.  He seems to be making all the right moves.  I have to question the logic of sending Matsuzaka out to face A-Rod in the 8th inning last night, though.  Matsuzaka was already over 100 pitches and was scuffling.  I would have sent Donnelly to face A-Rod and then brought in Okajima to face the next two batters.  Timlin would have been available to come in behind Okajima, if necessary.  Second guessing aside, the Sox are rolling right now.

Friday, April 20, 2007

Counter Strike

The first Sox-Yanks game of 2007 was a great one. The "Slappy McPurplelips Show" accounted for 5 of the 6 runs scored by New York. Curt Schilling wasn't in top form, scuffling a bit, serving up a pair of homers to McPurplelips. The Sox offense bounced back against the mediocre Yankee bullpen in the 8th inning. Hideki Okajima earned the save in the 9th.

R.I.P. Mariano Rivera. An 88-MPH cutter with no movement isn't going to "cut it" in the major leagues.


I've been listening to Death Cab for Cutie's "Plans" the last few days. It's a great melancholy CD. It's soothing and sweet and feels honest at the core.

Saturday, April 14, 2007

Why I Want to Revoke Your License

Generally speaking I’m an easy going guy. I’m an optimist, so life is good and the glass is half full. Most things will roll off me like water off a duck’s back. I admit that I think it’s a great way to navigate through life.

Unfortunately, navigating in my car isn’t always so cheery. Some things in life bug me to no end. Bad drivers have to be at or near the top of my list. The daily commute is often an exercise in both patience and alert driving. I may not be the world’s most experienced driver myself, but I was taught well.

Here is a list of some of my biggest annoyances on the road. For any minor driving faults I may have, I won’t be caught doing any of the following.

Glued to a cell phone while driving
When you are driving your top priority should be driving. Driving somewhere isn’t an excuse to use up all of your overpriced cell phone minutes. When you are glued to your cell phone you are distracted to some degree no matter how good a driver you may or may not be when the road has your full attention.

I know who you are, too. I can usually spot you from a quarter mile away. You touch your brake randomly, you don’t maintain a constant speed, and you often drift to the left and right. I’ve predicted many times that you were chatting away before I ever had visual confirmation.
If you must talk and drive, keep it to a minimum and use a hands free headset. Then you have zero excuse for committing the second offense on this list, which you have a tendency to do…

Not using turn signals
I love “Star Wars”. I’ve often wished that I was “Force sensitive” and could wield a real light saber. If I could manipulate the force, I might not be able to read your mind, but I could at least force you prevent me from wishing I could. You must be simple minded, after all, if you can’t remember or be bothered to signal.

I don’t read minds. No one does. Turn signals aren’t simply a courtesy, but a safety feature. Signaling allows me and everyone else on the road to understand your intentions and react accordingly.

On the highway your turn signals provide a warning to any cars that may be in one of your blind spots. On regular road ways your turn signals allow people to navigate around you or in front of you without causing an accident. When you don’t use your turn signal I get frustrated because I’m not going to commit the next offense and you made me wait longer for an opening…

Cutting people off
Don’t be an asshole. I don’t drive like your grandmother and you’re no more important that I am. If I have to brake after you cut in front of me, you should not have made a lane change.

There is plenty of highway for you to plan your lane changes. If you can’t find ample opportunity to make a safe lane change at, oh, say, the “One mile to the next exit” sign, don’t take it out on me. Odds are you are a multiple offender, talking on a cell phone, not signaling, and/or driving overly aggressively. You may even be guilty of the next offense…

Not checking your blind spot
I’m going to let you in on a little secret. All cars, from the smallest little Mini Cooper to the largest Chevy Suburban, have two blind spots. Until you have that experimental surgery to install two new eyeballs in the back of your head you must turn your head to check your blind spots before even thinking of making a lane change. Your side mirrors are not adequate.

Checking your blind spot takes all of a second to do and can prevent accidents, swerving, and will minimize the number of times someone honks their horn at you. Even if you’re merging right you need to check your blind spot, because you’re likely to encounter someone who is…

Passing people in the right lane excessively
Not only is passing in the right lane illegal it’s dangerous. Faster traffic moves to the left. I don’t care if the right line is wide open. It’s not an excuse to pass 25 cars at 90 MPH.

I understand that occasionally you might need to pass a car or two and can’t do so by merging left. Just don’t overdo it. If you do you are probably…

Driving over aggressively
Odds are you are male. You either have a fast car or think you do. What I can’t figure out is why you think every day is the Indy 500. Either you are compensating or you need to learn time management.

Stop weaving in-and-out of lanes. Stop passing excessively on the right. And please stop…

Tailgating
Get off my ass. I’m not going to drive any faster just because you want to admire my rear fender. I’m driving an adequate speed for my lane and you can feel free to pass me (on the left, thank you very much). I’m not going to transfer your aggression or ignorance to the car in front of me.

If you aren’t paying attention and start to ride up my backside, Heaven help you if you’re…

Reading the newspaper or other such activities
You should be thrown in jail immediately if you are reading the newspaper while driving. What could be worse than yapping on a cell phone while driving? How about not even looking at the road while driving?

Don’t read and drive. Don’t apply makeup and drive. Don’t change your clothes and drive. Don’t eat and drive. Don’t goof around with the passenger(s) in your car and drive. Don’t do whatever you are doing when you are reaching down to the floor on the passenger side of the car and drive.

Not accelerating and merging on highway on ramps
I ran out of clever transitions for the last few items, but they are no less important.

You need to accelerate, look at the oncoming right lane traffic, and merge safely when getting on the highway. It may sound complicated, but you should have this skill mastered after five trips on the highway. How it is that you manage to make this a difficult task after years of driving is beyond me.

Stick to the back roads if you can’t get onto the highway safely. You’re not simply putting yourself at risk you’re putting everyone behind you at risk, too. You should never get on the highway at 30 MPH. Ever.

Not understanding or obeying the right of way
Cars to your right have the right of way. Clever, isn’t it? So do cars going straight or right through an intersection. Cars on a main road also have the right of way before cars on a side street.

Make the letter “L” with your index finger and thumb if you can’t remember which side is your right and which is your left.

Stop trying to cut everyone off making a left turn when a light turns green. Stop trying to turn left in front of traffic on a main road. Stop trying to ignore the right of way at four-way stops. Ignorance isn’t an excuse.

Swinging out wide to make a turn
The final offense is one of the most annoying because it’s so simple. Move left to turn left and move right to turn right. You will be doing everyone a courtesy (especially if you are using your turn signals) and not slowing traffic around and behind you.

School buses, 18-wheel trucks, RVs, and any vehicle towing a trailer have wide turn radii and require extra space to navigate corners. Your passenger vehicle does not.

I see double digit offenders weekly. I can’t tell you how many CVS employees commit this offense daily in the industrial park where I work. I’m thinking of notifying CVS headquarters and telling them to require a remedial driving course for their employees.


There are many good drivers on the road. Unfortunately the number of bad drivers on the road often feels like the majority. Please drive safely and courteously on the road. Your driving affects not only you, but others around you.

Thursday, April 12, 2007

Sweet Home Massachusetts; It's Good to Be the King

The Red Sox home opener played out beautifully on Tuesday. Josh Beckett was brilliant and the offense came alive, scoring a pair of touchdowns. The offensive outburst allowed Francona to use the bench and give all the positional players some face time before the crowd.

Yesterday’s pitching matchup of Daisuke Matsuzaka versus Felix Hernandez was as tantalizing as they come in mid-April. Both pitchers played well last night. Matsuzaka pitched well enough to win on most nights. I’ll take 7 innings and 3 earned runs from any starter, any day of the week (and twice on Sunday).

I felt that Matsuzaka didn’t have his best stuff last night; his offspeed pitches didn’t have as much movement as some previous outings. He still managed to pitch a very solid game. I think that his effort last night bodes well for the rest of the season. When he’s on he can dominate and when he’s off he can still keep teams at bay.

I’m not being a homer when I say this, but I felt that Hernandez had a bigger strike zone than Matsuzaka last night. Hernandez seemed to get many calls on the edges of the plate and the upper part of the strike zone. He threw a high curveball that was clearly above the letters to Pedroia that was called a strike. Matsuzaka didn’t get favorable calls when he could have put hitters away with pitches on the corners. His strike zone definitely seemed smaller.

Regardless of the strike zone inconsistencies, “Felix the King” pitched a brilliant game last night. I don’t know if this kid has completely turned the corner or not, but he has been outstanding so far this year. The two leading contenders for the Cy Young right now are Hernandez and Beckett. It’s early in the season so I’d be surprised if both players were still the leading contenders in September. I hope that Becket remains on the list.

Monday, April 09, 2007

In Papelbon We Trust

I don’t think many baseball observers would disagree that Jonathan Papelbon is one of the top five, or maybe top three, closers in baseball.  I am going on the record today as saying that Jonathan Papelbon is the best closer in baseball.  He is simply made to close big games.  The stare, the confidence, the raw power, the filthy pitches, the adrenaline-fueled exuberance.  He has it all.

Papelbon was amazing last night against the Texas Rangers.  Curt Schilling pitched seven strong innings, allowing a single run and leaving with a 3 to 1 lead.  Joel Pineiro starts the 8th inning and can’t find the strike zone.  The bases are loaded and Terry Francona is starting to sweat bullets.  Javier Lopez induces an RBI groundout.  With runners on the corners and one out in a 3–2 ballgame Francona calls for Papelbon.  Papelbon strikes out Michael Young on four pitches, simply overpowering him.  He blows fastballs by Young at 94, 95, and 96 MPH, increasing speed with each strike.  A pop out ends the inning.  Papelbon continues the domination in the 9th inning, shutting down the Rangers.  He ends up with a five-out save, throwing only 15 pitches and striking out three.

Big Papi looked good last night, finally getting solid wood on the baseball.  He managed a pair of homeruns, accounting for all of the Red Sox scoring.  He also roped a would-be base hit late in the game that was stabbed beautifully after a hop by a diving two-time Gold Glove winner, Mark Teixeira.

 

After a week of Sox baseball I can say that the pitching looks good.  The starting pitching has been very strong.  With the exception of Saturday against the Rangers, the bullpen has also been a strength so far.  Last night Papelbon covered for Pineiro’s ineffectiveness.

The offense, on the other hand, has been near offensive.  If the bottom of the order can’t hit this season, we need to start playing small ball with ‘Tek, Crisp, and Pedroia.

 

I hate off-days.

Friday, April 06, 2007

Dazzling Debut

Daisuke Matsuzaka’s Red Sox debut was simply brilliant yesterday.  He pitched seven strong innings and struck out 10 Kansas City (Missouri) Royals.  He earned his first Major League victory by allowing only a single run.  Matsuzaka’s performance was even better than I predicted (6.1 IP, 5H, 2BB, 7K, 2ER, 107 Pitches – over at “Matsuzaka Watch”).

I wish the game times were the typical 7PM starts.  It’s frustrating at the beginning of the season not being able to follow the games live on TV or radio.

Glad to see that Jeter is making errors at a steady clip this season.  Maybe the voters will finally smarten up and stop giving him undeserved Gold Glove awards.  Also glad to see ARod in mid-season choke form.  Bases loaded in the 8th and he pops up a meatball of a pitch.  I think I heard the “boos” from outside the window last night.

 

Thursday, April 05, 2007

Take 2 Is Much Better

The Sox finally managed to climb back to .500 after more than a 48-hour wait.  At times I feel like Tom Petty was on to something.

 

Josh Beckett may not have pitched brilliantly last night, but in my eyes he made improvements over his performance from last year.  Beckett stayed with his off-speed pitches and was able to navigate some trouble spots.  He didn’t try to force his fastball down the Royals’ throats when he was in a jam.  I think that his approach last night will serve him well this year.

 

Mike Lowell had three errors last night.  Whoever made the Mike Lowell voodoo doll, please destroy it now.

 

J.D. Drew made an excellent catch on a gap shot last night.  He was well positioned, had a great jump, and showed good speed in getting to the ball.  Beckett was clearly pumped by the catch as he probably thought that two runs were about to score.  That was a play that Trot Nixon might have made three years ago, but would not have made last year.  If Drew can stay healthy, I think I’m going to really like him.  Time will tell if the Sox overpaid and if he can continue to play at this level hitting behind two of the game’s best hitters.  He’s at least a solid all-around player when in the lineup.

 

I had a thought on opening day.  If Coco Crisp starts to hit with regularity batting 8th, he could potentially move up to 6th in the lineup.  If memory serves me correctly, Crisp is best at 2nd or 5th in the lineup based on his stats from his days in Cleveland.  I imagine that batting 6th would be close enough to 5th for him to be just as effective.  Lowell and Jason Varitek have yet to demonstrate that they have enough bat speed to provide any offense this year.  Crisp could be the solution to provide Drew with some protection.

 

 

Monday, April 02, 2007

Schil-lacked

Curt Schilling demonstrated that a great Spring Training doesn't guarantee a lick of success in the regular season as the Red Sox dropped the season opener 7-1 in Kansas City today. Schilling's control was decidedly lacking today. I laughed this afternoon when Yankee's starter Carl "I Think I Pulled My Glute and Will Miss the Rest of the Season" Pavano couldn't get out of the fifth inning against the Rays. I cried this evening when Schilling didn't even go out for the fifth inning.

If the Yankees lost today, it would have supported my assertion that the team doesn't have enough starting pitching to succeed this year. Unfortunately, their come-from-behind victory supports the pundits who said they have enough offense to overcome the poor rotation.

I think that J.D. Drew is going to get on base at a crazy clip this year, but end up scoring something like 30 runs. We don't have anyone who can bat 6th this year.

What state do the Royals play in? Kansas or Missouri? While we're at it, do the Chiefs play in Kansas or Missouri? I always assumed the Chiefs played in Missouri, but I'm not so sure about the Royals. Can the state of Missouri really support two baseball teams?

How can a professional team allow water fountains to spray water across the camera locations? The Royals probably don't broadcast in HD, but they should realize that other teams do.

We've got a whole extra day to brood about the first loss of the season. I hope that Beckett can provide a pick-me up on Wednesday.

Sunday, April 01, 2007

Break Out the Crystal Ball

It's time for my 2007 MLB predictions.

A.L. East
1. Boston - The best rotation in the division, arguably the best closer, and a potent lineup will propel the Sox to the top of the division and back into the playoffs.

2. Toronto - The Jays are poised to surprise (some) people and make a run at the division with good starting pitching and a great bullpen.

3. New York - The Yankees rotation is simply not good enough to win this division, no matter how good the lineup is.

4. Tampa Bay - The Rays are good enough to finish ahead of the Orioles but don't have any young pitching to compliment their young and talented lineup.

5. Baltimore - Not enough of anything to make much noise in the competitive A.L. East.

A.L. Central
1. Chicago - The White Sox rebound from a post-World Series hangover to win the Central.

2. Cleveland (A.L. WC) - The Indians bounce back in a big way in 2007 and win the American League Wild Card.

3. Minnesota - Without Liriano the Twins don't enough pitching to make the playoffs in what is probably the strongest division in baseball.

4. Detroit - The Tigers fall back to reality in a big way after spending most of last year as everyone's darling.

5. Kansas City - Once again the Royals are just going through the motions.

A.L. West
1. Los Angeles / Anaheim - The Angels will probably be the division winner with the fewest wins in the A.L.

2. Oakland - The A's should have a chance again to win the division playing by the "Moneyball" rules as long as their rotation stays healthy.

3. Texas - The Rangers still haven't figured out that they need good pitchers to make the playoffs.

4. Seattle - At least Ichiro will have the chance to showcase his talent before hitting free agency.

N.L. East
1. New York - The Mets rotation doesn't scare me in a good way, but it does scare me a little in a bad way.

2. Atlanta (N.L. WC) - The Braves return the playoffs but the don't quite win another division title after their incredible streak was ended last year.

3. Philadelphia - Ryan Howard and Chase Utley give Philly fans hope for the future.

4. Florida - The still very young Marlins team will probably win fewer games than last year, especially without Joe Girardi at the helm.

5. Washington - The Nats are stuck in neutral.

N.L. Central
1. St. Louis - The Cards should be able to earn the chance to defend their title, but this weak division is really up for grabs.

2. Cincinnati - It could be a good year to be a baseball fan in Ohio between the Reds and Indians.

3. Chicago - Without a healthy Prior and Wood the Cubbies will be watching the playoffs from home even after spending big this offseason.

4. Houston - The Astros won't make the playoffs with or without Roger Clemens.

5. Milwaukee - At least Ben Sheets is getting better with age and is under contract for the next few years.

6. Pittsburgh - Last season's N.L. batting champ played for the Pirates. Yay!

N.L. West
1. Los Angeles - Nomar, Grady, Billy, and all of the former Red Sox on the "Red Sox West" try to get fans in L.A. to appreciate baseball.

2. San Diego - The Padres compete with the Dodgers for the division title and the most former Red Sox players.

3. Arizona - Reacquiring Randy Johnson should help the Diamondbacks out of the N.L. West basement.

4. San Francisco - A declining Barry Zito should see a statistical uptick by switching to the N.L., but a declining Barry Bonds should be spending his nights in jail.

5. Colorado - The Rockies should have traded Todd Helton when they could still get value for him.


Playoffs

Red Sox over Indians
Angels over White Sox

Red Sox over Angels in the ALCS

Mets over Cardinals
Dodgers over Braves

Dodgers over Mets in the NLC

Red Sox over Dodger in the World Series


Awards
A.L. Cy Young - Roy Halladay
A.L. MVP - David Ortiz
N.L. Cy Young - Roy Oswalt
N.L. MVP - David Wright