My predictions for the 2006 Red Sox were posted back in April. I'm overdue to review my predictions against the actual stats. Predictions are in black. Actual numbers are in red. The grades in red are my personal assessment of my predictions, not my grades for the type of season the player had.
I completely missed the mark with my predicted win total of 98 and the division crown. The Sox finished with 86 wins and a third place finish in the A.L. East. I certainly didn't think they would completely tank the way they did down the stretch. The team trotted out more journeymen prospect type players the last two months of the season than many cellar dweller teams. Grade: C-
Hitters
Crisp: .310 (.264) 14 (8) HR 61 (36) RBI 32 (22) SB
In my mind Crisp never fully recovered from his broken finger in April. The off-season surgery on the finger would seem to confirm my suspicions. Having broken my knuckle, I know that Crisp was at least playing with pain in the hand when he returned last year. Grade: C
Loretta: .301 (.285) 11 (5) HR 78 (59) RBI
Loretta was the epitome of professional. He was fairly consistent at the plate although he did have some ups and downs. He was steady in the field all year. He will be missed next year. Grade: C+
Ortiz: .317 (.287) 43 (54) HR 141 (137) RBI
Ortiz had another MVP-caliber season, finishing third in the MVP voting. He set a new Red Sox single season record for homeruns. His HR and RBI totals were awesome. His batting average suffered a little from the numerous defensive shifts he faced when at the plate. Grade: B
Ramirez: .276 (.321) 34 (35) HR 118 (102) RBI
Ramirez seemed to prove that his troubles early in the 2005 season were a fluke; he had no problems hitting for his usual high average this year. He phoned in the end of the season, though, or his power numbers would be even higher. Grade: B-
Nixon: .272 (.268) 18 (8) HR 102 (52) RBI
Nixon, a true Red Sox dirt dog, saw his numbers fall into the toilet this year much like the content at Boston Dirt Dogs. Injuries once again plagued Trot and crippled his production. Thanks for the memories, Trot. Grade: D+
Varitek: .289 (.238) 15 (12) HR 94 (55) RBI
Varitek's numbers fell off a cliff this year. Yes, he spent some time on the DL. I hope the numbers are more reflective of injury and/or an off season than of old age catching up to a catcher in his 30's. Grade: D
Lowell: .264 (.284) 23 (20) HR 87 (80) RBI
Lowell had a nice bounce-back season at the plate. It's too bad that his extra-base hits dropped off as the season wore on and that he couldn't bat fifth to protect Ortiz and Manny. His defense was phenomenal and he deserved the Gold Glove. He had a higher fielding percentage and more chances than Eric Chavez, so his one more error should not have been the difference in winning or losing the award. Sadly, the Gold Glove means less than a Grammy award these days as the voting is a complete joke. Grade: B
Youkilis: .271 (.279) 12 (13) HR 76 (72) RBI
Youkilis was on base at a hearty .381 clip. He led the league in pitches per plate appearance. He was great with runners in scoring position and even better with runners in scoring position and two outs. He hit everywhere he was asked to in the order. He was a pleasant defensive surprise at first base. A solid season landed him the Hank and Sandy Most Valuable Jewish Player Award. Grade: A-
Gonzalez: .247 (.255) 10 (9) HR 52 (50) RBI
Gonzalez was exactly as advertised: excellent defense with no bat. He actually had a higher batting average most of the season, but played hurt late in the year and his BA tanked. He was even more deserving of a Gold Glove than Lowell. The fact that Jeter won the award illustrates the total incompetence of the voters. Grade: A
Pena: .239 (.301) 14 (11) HR 34 (42) RBI
I though Wily Mo made strides at the plate this year. He had a huge hole in his swing in April that he seemed to correct later in the year. He still strikes out a lot but he's a monster when he connects solidly. A defensive liability, he could be the everyday center fielder, with Crisp in left, if (when?) Manny is traded this off-season. Grade: C+
Pedroia: .286 (.191) 1 (2) HR 18 (7) RBI
The would-be starting second baseman for the 2007 Red Sox looked overmatched at the plate in a brief call up this year. I hope he looks better next year if the Sox don't bring Loretta back. Grade: C-
Pitchers
Easily the downfall of the 2006 Red Sox season. We didn't have enough pitching in the end. It seems like everyone was either hurt or stinking up the joint. Schilling's starts used to provide a sense of comfort but last year he allowed too many big innings late in games. Beckett never seemed to let Varitek call games and relied too much on his fastball. Wakefield stunk when Bard was catching him, didn't do a lot better with Mirabelli, and spent time on the DL. Tubby took a shot to the knee and missed most of the season before returning in time to be traded. Matt Clement disappeared. Keith Foulke was as bad as expected early in the year. Foulke's shaky start did open the door for the one bright spot of the staff, Jonathan Papelbon. Papelbon was excellent before hurting his shoulder. He set a new Red Sox rookie record for saves and had an E.R.A. under 1.00. Jon Lester impressed before his season was shut down. I hope that he is able to fully treat his cancer and lead a fulfilling life. Craig Hansen and Manny Delcarman were disappointing but showed brief flashes.
Schilling: 20-7 (15-7) 3.62 (3.97) ERA Grade: B-
Wakefield: 14-12 (7-11) 4.53 (4.63) ERA Grade: C
Beckett: 20-8 (16-11) 3.44 (5.01) ERA Grade: C-
Clement: 16-10 (5-5) 3.98 (6.61) ERA Grade: D
Wells: 9-9 (2-3) 4.47 (4.98) ERA Grade: D+
Papelbon: 7-3 (4-2) 3.16 (0.92) ERA 14 (35) S 1 (6) BS Grade: D+
Foulke: 2-5 (3-1) 3.88 (4.35) ERA 11 (0) S 4 (0) BS Grade: C
Hansen: 2-1 (2-2) 2.74 (6.63) ERA 10 (0) S 2 (2) BS Grade: C-
Sunday, November 26, 2006
NFL Week 12 - Pats Prediction
Pats Prediction:
Last week: The Pats put a whuppin' on a lower tier team (the Packers) last week. The 35-0 score demonstrated a perfectly executed gameplan for the good guys. Green Bay wasn't even in the game. I hope they continue to fire on all cylinders today.
Season record: 5-5 straight up, 3-6-1 against the spread.
Week 12 Favorite: New England (-4)
The Bears have feasted on lesser teams in the NFC this year. They haven't beaten anyone who impresses me. The Vikings, with whom the Bears struggled, are not as good as they looked a month ago. Rex Grossman has terrible mechanics, especially under pressure. The Bears should have lost on Monday night to the Cardinals this year. Ricky Manning, Jr.'s suspension comes at a bad time for Chicago.
Brady is 19-1 on turf in his career. He will now be playing his home games on FieldTurf. The Pats have the horses on defense to pressure Grossman. They also have enough on offensive to attack the Bears on the ground and in the air. I think the Pats will take an early lead and keep Chicago at bay today.
Prediction: Patriots 20, Bears 17
Last week: The Pats put a whuppin' on a lower tier team (the Packers) last week. The 35-0 score demonstrated a perfectly executed gameplan for the good guys. Green Bay wasn't even in the game. I hope they continue to fire on all cylinders today.
Season record: 5-5 straight up, 3-6-1 against the spread.
Week 12 Favorite: New England (-4)
The Bears have feasted on lesser teams in the NFC this year. They haven't beaten anyone who impresses me. The Vikings, with whom the Bears struggled, are not as good as they looked a month ago. Rex Grossman has terrible mechanics, especially under pressure. The Bears should have lost on Monday night to the Cardinals this year. Ricky Manning, Jr.'s suspension comes at a bad time for Chicago.
Brady is 19-1 on turf in his career. He will now be playing his home games on FieldTurf. The Pats have the horses on defense to pressure Grossman. They also have enough on offensive to attack the Bears on the ground and in the air. I think the Pats will take an early lead and keep Chicago at bay today.
Prediction: Patriots 20, Bears 17
Sunday, November 19, 2006
NFL Week 11 - Pats Prediction
Pats Prediction:
Last week: I can't figure out the Patriots this year. For the second straight week they abandoned the run against a team with a poor run defense. I've heard people defend the team by saying they are adjusting to the defense, but I don't buy that excuse. I don't care if the Colts or Jets put 8 guys in the box - run the damn ball! The Jets beat the Pats 17-14 last week, dropping New England to 2-3 at home. For the first time in four years the Patriots lost two games in a row. Let's all hope that the new FieldTurf improves the Pats' chances at home rest of the year.
Season record: 4-5 straight up, 2-6-1 against the spread.
Week 9 Favorite: New England (-6)
I hope that Patriots can continue their success on the road this year (4-0). I honestly don't know what to expect today, though. I hope (think?) they will play with a purpose today and get a much needed win before playing the Bears at home next week.
Prediction: Patriots 27, Packers 20
Last week: I can't figure out the Patriots this year. For the second straight week they abandoned the run against a team with a poor run defense. I've heard people defend the team by saying they are adjusting to the defense, but I don't buy that excuse. I don't care if the Colts or Jets put 8 guys in the box - run the damn ball! The Jets beat the Pats 17-14 last week, dropping New England to 2-3 at home. For the first time in four years the Patriots lost two games in a row. Let's all hope that the new FieldTurf improves the Pats' chances at home rest of the year.
Season record: 4-5 straight up, 2-6-1 against the spread.
Week 9 Favorite: New England (-6)
I hope that Patriots can continue their success on the road this year (4-0). I honestly don't know what to expect today, though. I hope (think?) they will play with a purpose today and get a much needed win before playing the Bears at home next week.
Prediction: Patriots 27, Packers 20
Sunday, November 12, 2006
NFL Week 10 - Pats Prediction
Pats Prediction:
Last week: The Colts beat the Pats legitimately this year. Brady had terrible numbers with 4 INTs, but played better than that. Three of the four INTs were tipped. Kevin Faulk cost the Pats a chance to tie the game when he couldn't hold onto a short pass over the middle. The Colts managed a 27-20 victory. At least Vinatieri missed two field goals.
Season record: 4-4 straight up, 1-6-1 against the spread.
Week 9 Favorite: New England (-10.5)
I have no doubt that the Pats will beat the Jets today. I don't think they will cover the spread, though. A ten point spread in the NFL is a lot to ask any team. Mangini has proven to be a pretty good coach this year, but the Jets don't yet have the talent to match the Patriots. Belichick needs to redeem himself after screwing up the gameplan in the second half against the Colts last week.
Prediction: Patriots 24, Jets 16
Last week: The Colts beat the Pats legitimately this year. Brady had terrible numbers with 4 INTs, but played better than that. Three of the four INTs were tipped. Kevin Faulk cost the Pats a chance to tie the game when he couldn't hold onto a short pass over the middle. The Colts managed a 27-20 victory. At least Vinatieri missed two field goals.
Season record: 4-4 straight up, 1-6-1 against the spread.
Week 9 Favorite: New England (-10.5)
I have no doubt that the Pats will beat the Jets today. I don't think they will cover the spread, though. A ten point spread in the NFL is a lot to ask any team. Mangini has proven to be a pretty good coach this year, but the Jets don't yet have the talent to match the Patriots. Belichick needs to redeem himself after screwing up the gameplan in the second half against the Colts last week.
Prediction: Patriots 24, Jets 16
Sunday, November 05, 2006
NFL Week 9 - Pat's Prediction
Pats Prediction:
Last week: Wow. The Pats beatdown the Vikings in Minnesota. I heard a caller on WEEI last Friday afternoon say that the score would be 31-10 in favor of the Pats because the Vikings had no chance to keep up with the Pats. That guy was a lot closer than I was. The final score was actually 31-7. New England’s game plan was simply brilliant. Score another one for Bill Belichick and his staff. A tough 0-2 week for me, although I'm happy to be wrong.
Season record: 4-3 straight up, 1-5-1 against the spread.
Week 9 Favorite: New England (-3)
Strangely enough the Colts don’t scare me this week. Facing a defense that is allowing a whopping 5.2 yards per carry I could probably hold my own as the featured back in the Patriot’s offense this week. I expect the Pats to come out throwing the football because everyone thinks they will pound the ball on the ground. After they knock the Colts back on their heels with the aerial attack I expect them to unleash Dillon and Maroney. I think Belichick can (and will) coach circles around the very overrated Tony Dungy. Dungy and Brian Billick are two coaches who were erroniously granted “genious” status because of the schemes and personnel they had as coordinators. In addition to the gameplans in place Peyton Manning has never beaten the Pats in a meaningful game. He can have last year’s victory; it was a hollow win against a depleted Patriots team without Harrison and Seymour among others. I think the Pats will control the clock and the game without much trouble.
Prediction: Patriots 34, Colts 24
Last week: Wow. The Pats beatdown the Vikings in Minnesota. I heard a caller on WEEI last Friday afternoon say that the score would be 31-10 in favor of the Pats because the Vikings had no chance to keep up with the Pats. That guy was a lot closer than I was. The final score was actually 31-7. New England’s game plan was simply brilliant. Score another one for Bill Belichick and his staff. A tough 0-2 week for me, although I'm happy to be wrong.
Season record: 4-3 straight up, 1-5-1 against the spread.
Week 9 Favorite: New England (-3)
Strangely enough the Colts don’t scare me this week. Facing a defense that is allowing a whopping 5.2 yards per carry I could probably hold my own as the featured back in the Patriot’s offense this week. I expect the Pats to come out throwing the football because everyone thinks they will pound the ball on the ground. After they knock the Colts back on their heels with the aerial attack I expect them to unleash Dillon and Maroney. I think Belichick can (and will) coach circles around the very overrated Tony Dungy. Dungy and Brian Billick are two coaches who were erroniously granted “genious” status because of the schemes and personnel they had as coordinators. In addition to the gameplans in place Peyton Manning has never beaten the Pats in a meaningful game. He can have last year’s victory; it was a hollow win against a depleted Patriots team without Harrison and Seymour among others. I think the Pats will control the clock and the game without much trouble.
Prediction: Patriots 34, Colts 24
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