Pats Prediction:
My internet connection has been flaky this week. I couldn't get online to post anything last week. I would have predicted the Jaguars to prevail 24-20 over the Patriots and cover the spread. Scout's honor. I'm taking two losses for last week.
Last week: The Pats used a spread offense to dominate the time of possesion against the Jaguars. Maurice Jones-Drew made Tully Banta-Cain and Tedy Bruschi look foolish at times. The Pats had just enough to hold off the Jaguars in the end.
Season record: 8-7 straight up, 4-9-2 against the spread.
Week 17 Favorite: Tennessee (-3.5)
The Pats need help from Miami (facing the Colts) to secure the #3 seed in the AFC. They know they will be playing next week at home. They simply don't know who their opponent will be. They really don't have a lot to play for today other than pride. I think the Patriots present a more difficult challange to the Titans than some of the teams the Titans have suprised in recent weeeks. Tennessee is fighting to make the playoffs. I like the Patriots to win today and keep my straight-up record above .500.
Prediction: Patriots 17, Titans 13
Sunday, December 31, 2006
Tuesday, December 19, 2006
Wily Mo versus Big Papi
I was bored tonight because there was nothing on TV. I started comparing David Ortiz's stats to Wily Mo's. I looked as far back as the three years prior to joining the Sox since they both played a similar amount in the three prior years and had about the same relative Major League service. I was curious to see if I could find similar trends that would lead me to think Wily Mo Pena could someday be as dangerous at the plate as Señor Octubre.
Here are the raw numbers. Sorry for the lame embedded image; Blogger sucks at formatting charts and tables and doesn't allow users to paste tables:
A few stats jumped out at me. WMP really had a power decrease this year as evidenced by his HR% (HR/AB*100). He dropped from the 6-7% range down to just under 4% this year. His wrist injury probably contributed to that, but the drop is worth noting.
Ortiz stayed at a fairly consistent HR rate, but dipped to slightly under 5% in 2002, a year in which his plate discipline was worse as seen by a higher AB-per-walk ratio. I believe he was also recovering from wrist and knee surgeries in 2002, but I haven't been able to track down the surgery dates yet. Big Papi has been rocking at about 7% HR or better since joining the Sox. Wily Mo has shown the same potential as evidence by his HR rate in his two final seasons in Cincinnati.
Both players also earned an RBI between 15 and 20% of the time (RBI/AB*100) before joining the Sox. Ortiz jumped to 22% or more every year since he arrived in Boston. This again bodes well for Wily Mo.
The bad news is that Ortiz, who had a reputation as a player with a hole in his swing, was much more disciplined at the plate. He was drawing walks at a rate of about one per every 7.5 ABs. WMP draws walks at half that rate, or about one per every 14.5 ABs.
Ortiz also had a much lower strikeout rate before joining the Red Sox. Ortiz would strikeout about 20% of the time (K/AB*100). Wily Mo Pena strikes out nearly 33% of the time.
The universally accepted theory is that Red Sox staff fixed the hole in David Ortiz's swing which resulted in his increased productivity. Fixing the hole in his swing may have increased Ortiz's HR rate, but he also improved his plate discipline since joining the Sox while maintaining a consistent strikeout rate. These factors combined have yielded the amazing results we've given witness to over the last four seasons.
Wily Mo needs to seriously reduce his strikeout rate to become a more productive hitter. The slight uptick in his batting average was nice this year but his lack of power rendered it less effective. His homerun and RBI rates are good enough to provide middle-of-the-order power, but his walk and strikeout rates are poor enough to keep him batting 6th or lower in the lineup. For Wily Mo to turn the corner he needs to reach for the stars, not swing for them.
Ortiz stayed at a fairly consistent HR rate, but dipped to slightly under 5% in 2002, a year in which his plate discipline was worse as seen by a higher AB-per-walk ratio. I believe he was also recovering from wrist and knee surgeries in 2002, but I haven't been able to track down the surgery dates yet. Big Papi has been rocking at about 7% HR or better since joining the Sox. Wily Mo has shown the same potential as evidence by his HR rate in his two final seasons in Cincinnati.
Both players also earned an RBI between 15 and 20% of the time (RBI/AB*100) before joining the Sox. Ortiz jumped to 22% or more every year since he arrived in Boston. This again bodes well for Wily Mo.
The bad news is that Ortiz, who had a reputation as a player with a hole in his swing, was much more disciplined at the plate. He was drawing walks at a rate of about one per every 7.5 ABs. WMP draws walks at half that rate, or about one per every 14.5 ABs.
Ortiz also had a much lower strikeout rate before joining the Red Sox. Ortiz would strikeout about 20% of the time (K/AB*100). Wily Mo Pena strikes out nearly 33% of the time.
The universally accepted theory is that Red Sox staff fixed the hole in David Ortiz's swing which resulted in his increased productivity. Fixing the hole in his swing may have increased Ortiz's HR rate, but he also improved his plate discipline since joining the Sox while maintaining a consistent strikeout rate. These factors combined have yielded the amazing results we've given witness to over the last four seasons.
Wily Mo needs to seriously reduce his strikeout rate to become a more productive hitter. The slight uptick in his batting average was nice this year but his lack of power rendered it less effective. His homerun and RBI rates are good enough to provide middle-of-the-order power, but his walk and strikeout rates are poor enough to keep him batting 6th or lower in the lineup. For Wily Mo to turn the corner he needs to reach for the stars, not swing for them.
Sunday, December 17, 2006
NFL Week 15 - Pats Prediction
Pats Prediction:
Last week: The Dolphins whipped the Pats by a score of 21-0. The Pats looked terrible. Brady had no time to throw and took a number of hits. The running game was lost without Maroney. Simply an awful game last week. The Patriots are clearly a flawed team this year.
Season record: 7-6 straight up, 4-7-2 against the spread.
Week 15 Favorite: New England (-12)
The Patriots looked terrible last week. They struggled against the Lions the week before. I don't expect them to dominate today. If the offensive line plays as poorly as they did in Miami, Mario Williams may actually look like a #1 overall draft pick today.
I think the Pats win today but they once again struggle with an inferior opponent.
Prediction: Patriots 20, Texans 13
Last week: The Dolphins whipped the Pats by a score of 21-0. The Pats looked terrible. Brady had no time to throw and took a number of hits. The running game was lost without Maroney. Simply an awful game last week. The Patriots are clearly a flawed team this year.
Season record: 7-6 straight up, 4-7-2 against the spread.
Week 15 Favorite: New England (-12)
The Patriots looked terrible last week. They struggled against the Lions the week before. I don't expect them to dominate today. If the offensive line plays as poorly as they did in Miami, Mario Williams may actually look like a #1 overall draft pick today.
I think the Pats win today but they once again struggle with an inferior opponent.
Prediction: Patriots 20, Texans 13
Friday, December 15, 2006
Konichiwa Matsuzaka-san!
The Red Sox completed a deal with Japanese right-hander Daisuke Matsuzaka-san at the 11th hour yesterday. I haven't been this excited about the Sox acquiring a pitcher since the Duke obtained Pedro Martinez before the 1998 season. Theo and Company did a brilliant job staring down the devil (agent Scott Boras) in the high stakes poker game of negotiations and forcing him to fold. I think the deal is a great one for the Sox; Matsuzak
a-san is under contract for six years at a reasonable salary. In fact, his salary is in line with the extension the Sox gave Josh Beckett last year. I think that the Red Sox and Scott Boras were both wrong in how they viewed the $51.1 million that the Red Sox posted for the rights to Matsuzaka-san. Boras was wrong to think that the posting amount should in any way correlate to the player's salary. The Sox were wrong to view the posting fee as part of the contract offered to the player. I think that the posting fee needs to be completely disregarded as soon as the winning bid is announced. The Sox are going to pay Daisuke Matsuzaka-san more than any Japanese baseball player ever and more than any untested foreign player. That's a great deal for the player and considering that the average annual value is less than $9 million it's also a great deal for the Red Sox.
Daisuke-san may or may not need a new nickname. I think his current nickname of "Monster" is fine. It works well considering that he'll be pitching his home games in Fenway Park with the "Green Monster" at his back. I seriously don't want people or the press to call him "D-Mat". I hate the "first initial, hyphen, first syllable of last name" nicknames. They aren't real nicknames. I hate "A-Rod", "I-Rod", "A-Gon", "T-Mac", "J-Wil", and every other iteration. If you hear someone refer to Daisuke-san as "D-Mat", please punch them in the mouth for me. For now I'm sticking with either "Monster", or "Pedro 2: Electric Boogaloo". I think I prefer the former.
The good news for Johnny Damon fans is that their home jerseys, with #18 on the back, are now a hot item again. I'm trying to locate a Seibu Lions #18 jersey. Nike appears to manufacture the uniforms for Nippon Baseball, but they don't seem to sell them stateside. It's too bad because the jerseys are nice and Nike is missing out on a revenue stream. I wonder if they are barred from selling the jerseys in the U.S. because they aren't the official jersey manufacturer of Major League Baseball. Any way you slice it, I think Seibu Lions jerseys would be big sellers in the New England area right now.
a-san is under contract for six years at a reasonable salary. In fact, his salary is in line with the extension the Sox gave Josh Beckett last year. I think that the Red Sox and Scott Boras were both wrong in how they viewed the $51.1 million that the Red Sox posted for the rights to Matsuzaka-san. Boras was wrong to think that the posting amount should in any way correlate to the player's salary. The Sox were wrong to view the posting fee as part of the contract offered to the player. I think that the posting fee needs to be completely disregarded as soon as the winning bid is announced. The Sox are going to pay Daisuke Matsuzaka-san more than any Japanese baseball player ever and more than any untested foreign player. That's a great deal for the player and considering that the average annual value is less than $9 million it's also a great deal for the Red Sox.Daisuke-san may or may not need a new nickname. I think his current nickname of "Monster" is fine. It works well considering that he'll be pitching his home games in Fenway Park with the "Green Monster" at his back. I seriously don't want people or the press to call him "D-Mat". I hate the "first initial, hyphen, first syllable of last name" nicknames. They aren't real nicknames. I hate "A-Rod", "I-Rod", "A-Gon", "T-Mac", "J-Wil", and every other iteration. If you hear someone refer to Daisuke-san as "D-Mat", please punch them in the mouth for me. For now I'm sticking with either "Monster", or "Pedro 2: Electric Boogaloo". I think I prefer the former.
The good news for Johnny Damon fans is that their home jerseys, with #18 on the back, are now a hot item again. I'm trying to locate a Seibu Lions #18 jersey. Nike appears to manufacture the uniforms for Nippon Baseball, but they don't seem to sell them stateside. It's too bad because the jerseys are nice and Nike is missing out on a revenue stream. I wonder if they are barred from selling the jerseys in the U.S. because they aren't the official jersey manufacturer of Major League Baseball. Any way you slice it, I think Seibu Lions jerseys would be big sellers in the New England area right now.
Tuesday, December 12, 2006
Northshore Dragons win Super Bowl III
Congratulations to the Northshore Dragons, DFFL Super Bowl III Champions! After a grueling regular season the Dragons made it to the "Chip" without the benefit of a bye. The Dragons were an expansion team this year and used speed and athleticism to win it all.
Alright, so the handsome devil in the Oakleys is me! It was great playing with everyone this year, my first in the DFFL. I can't wait to defend the title next year.
Mingo, Shizz, Keith, Moose, Fred, MD, Gene, Rambo V, Tubbz, Brandon, Bo, Gabby, Dustin, and Ray, thanks for a great season!
Saturday, December 09, 2006
NFL Week 14 - Pats Prediction
Pats Prediction:
Last week: The Lions certainly put a scare into the Patriots last week. The Pats looked sloppy while committing a number of stupid penalties. Thankfully Tom Brady is still Tom Brady and he led a fourth quarter touchdown drive that gave the Pats a 28-21 win.
Season record: 7-5 straight up, 4-6-2 against the spread.
Week 14 Favorite: New England (-3.5)
The Dolphins have been playing better football lately. Joey Harrington has settled in at quarterback. The Dolphins' defense always seems to give New England trouble. I think this game could be a trap game for the Patriots. However, their incredible sloppy play last week makes me think they will be extra focused and determined to play clean football this week. For that reason I think the Pats win a game that will play out not too dissimilar from the Bears game two weeks ago. I think the Pats get the early lead and keep the Dolphins at bay.
Prediction: Patriots 27, Dolphins 17
Last week: The Lions certainly put a scare into the Patriots last week. The Pats looked sloppy while committing a number of stupid penalties. Thankfully Tom Brady is still Tom Brady and he led a fourth quarter touchdown drive that gave the Pats a 28-21 win.
Season record: 7-5 straight up, 4-6-2 against the spread.
Week 14 Favorite: New England (-3.5)
The Dolphins have been playing better football lately. Joey Harrington has settled in at quarterback. The Dolphins' defense always seems to give New England trouble. I think this game could be a trap game for the Patriots. However, their incredible sloppy play last week makes me think they will be extra focused and determined to play clean football this week. For that reason I think the Pats win a game that will play out not too dissimilar from the Bears game two weeks ago. I think the Pats get the early lead and keep the Dolphins at bay.
Prediction: Patriots 27, Dolphins 17
Sunday, December 03, 2006
A Traveshamockery! - Update
I'm pissed that the jackholes who vote in the AP and USA Today Coach's polls have elevated Florida over Michigan. Now Florida is going to play Ohio State (and get destroyed) in the National Championship game. It's a travesty, sham, and a mockery that the morons who vote would penalize Michigan for being idle. Florida was not impressive last night against Arkansas. That didn't stop CBS' commentators from slurping Florida and the SEC. Way to kiss ass to the conference you are in bed with, CBS.
Michigan had a more difficult road schedule this year, playing at Notre Dame, at Penn State, and at Ohio State. Three of Florida's four toughest games were played at the Swamp. The Big Ten conference plays more difficult out-of-conference games than the SEC. Michigan has better athletes on both the offensive and defensive lines. Florida won't even be able to stay close to Ohio State in January. I don't care what Florida coach Urban Meyer thinks.
At least ESPN's Gene Wojciechowski has some common sense.
The NCAA needs a division I playoff. The top four, or preferably, eight, teams should play in December and January. There would be no controversy and some of the top athletes would be better prepared for the longer NFL season. The BCS system has failed repeatedly; LSU, Auburn, and now Michigan, among others, have all been screwed over by the system.
I also think the Coach's poll should be abolished. Michigan was screwed over in the Coach's poll in 1997. The Wolverines were ranked #1 in both polls and beat a very good Washington State team led by Ryan Leaf. Nebraska, which also finished an undefeated season, leapfrogged the Wolverines in the final Coach's poll once coach-turned-senator Tom Osborne announced his retirement. The obvious swing in votes were driven by the same type of idiots who voted Florida over Michigan this week.
I for one, hope that the NCAA gets it right sooner rather than later.
Update: ESPN's Pat Forde also has a little common sense.
Michigan had a more difficult road schedule this year, playing at Notre Dame, at Penn State, and at Ohio State. Three of Florida's four toughest games were played at the Swamp. The Big Ten conference plays more difficult out-of-conference games than the SEC. Michigan has better athletes on both the offensive and defensive lines. Florida won't even be able to stay close to Ohio State in January. I don't care what Florida coach Urban Meyer thinks.
At least ESPN's Gene Wojciechowski has some common sense.
The NCAA needs a division I playoff. The top four, or preferably, eight, teams should play in December and January. There would be no controversy and some of the top athletes would be better prepared for the longer NFL season. The BCS system has failed repeatedly; LSU, Auburn, and now Michigan, among others, have all been screwed over by the system.
I also think the Coach's poll should be abolished. Michigan was screwed over in the Coach's poll in 1997. The Wolverines were ranked #1 in both polls and beat a very good Washington State team led by Ryan Leaf. Nebraska, which also finished an undefeated season, leapfrogged the Wolverines in the final Coach's poll once coach-turned-senator Tom Osborne announced his retirement. The obvious swing in votes were driven by the same type of idiots who voted Florida over Michigan this week.
I for one, hope that the NCAA gets it right sooner rather than later.
Update: ESPN's Pat Forde also has a little common sense.
Saturday, December 02, 2006
Go Blue! And NFL Week 13 - Pats Prediction
First of all, let me congratulate the University of Michigan Wolverines on earning a trip to the national championship game in January. The UCLA Bruins beat #2 ranked USC today virtually ensuring the Wolverines a rematch against Ohio State on a neutral field. I was of the opinion before the Ohio State - Michigan game that they should play again for all the marbles if the game was close. The game and the events following have done nothing to change my opinion. I don't think that USC or Florida played as difficult a road schedule as Michigan did this year. The Wolverines were the most worthy opponent in my mind before UCLA's assist today. I'm confident that the two polls will get it right, especially if Arkansas continues to hang tight with Florida. Michigan should get a rematch. GO BLUE!
Pats Prediction:
Last week: The game played out pretty much as I predicted. It was even more physical than I expected and had more turnovers than I would have liked. It was certainly fun to watch, though.
I hope that Junior Seau will at least give serious consideration to playing with the Pats again next year. He's been better than I expected this year. It was tough watching the replays of his leg being snapped last Sunday.
I thought the turf looked nice. The playing surface appeared level and even throughout. I'd like to see FieldTurf in person some day. I played an ultimate disc scrimmage at Wentworth's turf field (not FieldTurf) and it was like brillo against the skin - not pretty.
Season record: 6-5 straight up, 3-6-2 against the spread.
Week 13 Favorite: New England (-14)
The Lions still stink. Matt Millen hasn't shown that he has what it takes to guide them to even mediocrity. That said, I still think any double digit spread is difficult to bet with. I think New England should win easily. I just don't think they will win by as many points as Vegas does.
Prediction: Patriots 27, Lions 17
Pats Prediction:
Last week: The game played out pretty much as I predicted. It was even more physical than I expected and had more turnovers than I would have liked. It was certainly fun to watch, though.
I hope that Junior Seau will at least give serious consideration to playing with the Pats again next year. He's been better than I expected this year. It was tough watching the replays of his leg being snapped last Sunday.
I thought the turf looked nice. The playing surface appeared level and even throughout. I'd like to see FieldTurf in person some day. I played an ultimate disc scrimmage at Wentworth's turf field (not FieldTurf) and it was like brillo against the skin - not pretty.
Season record: 6-5 straight up, 3-6-2 against the spread.
Week 13 Favorite: New England (-14)
The Lions still stink. Matt Millen hasn't shown that he has what it takes to guide them to even mediocrity. That said, I still think any double digit spread is difficult to bet with. I think New England should win easily. I just don't think they will win by as many points as Vegas does.
Prediction: Patriots 27, Lions 17
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