Pats Prediction - Divisional Playoff

Pats Prediction:

Last week: The Pats turned a close game into a blowout thanks to a couple of timely plays by the defense. First, Roosevelt Colvin deflected a lateral that Vince Wilfork smartly picked up and ran back 31 yards. Second, Asante Samuel did an excellent job to leave his receiver and jump the pass route to nab another interception and score a backbreaking touchdown. If the Jets had scored on that possession, they still would have been in the game. Samuel put the Pats up by 21 and took the life out of the Jets.

Regular Season Record: 9-7 straight up, 4-10-2 against the spread.
Playoff Record: 1-0 straight up, 0-1 against the spread.

AFC Divisional Playoff Favorite: San Diego (-4.5)

I think that the San Diego Chargers are overhyped and overrated. That said, I believe the Chargers are still one of the two or three best teams in football this year. The Chargers' defense is the reason the team is overhyped. They had some great games against weak teams (Oakland, Tennesee) yet they gave up 41 points to Cincinnati, 30 to KC, and 25 to Cleveland. They won a lot of games by less than 10 points. The fact that San Diego had such a powerful offense allowed the defense to look better than it was. San Diego controlled the clock on the ground and with a short passing game. The team rarely trailed in games this season. For those two reasons, the defense was able to pad its stats against the run and the pass; opponents didn't run on the Chargers as much as most teams because they fell behind and the Chargers' D could tee off on quarterbacks trying to play catch-up through the air.

I think that the key for the Patriots is to stop Antonio Gates. He is Philip Rivers' safety blanket. I think that the Patriots' run defense is good enough to contain LT today. I would consider 100 yards or so and two or fewer scores a victory for our defense. If the Patriots can score first and make San Diego play from behind, even more pressure will fall on Rivers' shoulders. I think that by shutting down Gates the Patriots will be able to force Rivers to make mistakes. Those mistakes will be the difference in the game.

Prediction: Patriots 27, Chargers 24