A Day Early, A Dollar Extra

Here is my soon to be world famous NFL Draft 1st Round Prediction. I'm a day early thanks to the awful performance of the Sox last night.

1. HOU - Reggie Bush, RB, USC
Bush by all accounts is a special player. Houston cannot afford to pass on such a dynamic playmaker. After reading this Michael Smith column I do see the logic in drafting Mario Williams ahead of Bush. I don't think the Texans will pass on Bush, though.

2. NO - Mario Williams, DE, N.C. State
New Orleans seemed destined to draft Matt Leinart or Vince Young before they acquired Drew Brees in the offseason. Now the Saints are positioned to trade this pick to a team hoping to nab one of the two QBs. I don't think they will find any takers and they will be happy to select Williams.

3. TEN - Vince Young, QB, Texas
I think that Vince Young has a higher ceiling that Matt Leinart and that Young will fit the current system in Tennessee better than Leinart. Some have questioned Leinart's ability to throw the deep ball and his accuracy. Count me among them. I think the Titans are content to wait 1-2 seasons developing Young regardless of the status of Steve McNair's contract.

4. NYJ - Matt Leinart, QB, USC
Matt Leinart, who would be playing for the San Francisco 49's had he entered the draft last year, falls into the lap of the Jets. The Jets covet Leinart but aren't willing to trade up to get him. They luck out here and get a player made for the New York market. Leinart should be a good QB, if not a great one, but he'll be perfect for advertisers no matter his career path.

5. GB - D'Brickshaw Ferguson, OT, Virginia
In any other year Ferguson would be discussed as a candidate to be drafted #1 overall. Green Bay has a lot of needs and will get a solid player here. Ferguson helps an offensive line that was really hurt by free agency last year. If Ferguson is off the board, look for Green Bay to select A.J. Hawk. Either way the Packers will get an immediate upgrade at a position of need.

6. SF - Vernon Davis, TE, Maryland
The Niners have been targeting Davis as an offensive weapon to help the development of Alex Smith. Davis is a freak - 6'-3 1/4" with sub 4.4 speed - who will help define the current playmaking tight end in the NFL. He's the newest Tony Gonzalez or Antonio Gates will even better wheels and more upside.

7. OAK - A.J. Hawk, LB, Ohio State
Oakland takes the best player on the draft board with Hawk. By all accounts he's a smart player with great instincts. If he continues to grow his hair, he could easily fill the "Bill Romanowski Pyschopath Look" void in the NFL. He and Mario Williams will compete for Defensive Rookie of the Year.

8. BUF - *trade* - STL - Jay Cutler, QB, Vanderbilt
The Bills aren't thrilled about potentially drafting Haloti Ngata or Brodrick Bunkley here. Cutler, who theoretically could be drafted as high as #7 to Oakland or as low as #17 to Minnesota, is once again on the rise. Saint Louis is concerned that Arizona will take Cutler at #10 so they move up to grab him here.

9. DET - Michael Huff, DB, Texas
Detroit gets the player they want here. Huff is a DB with experience at cornerback and safety. Most scouts think he'll be a better utilized as a cornerback in the NFL. The Lions can't go wrong with Huff and could use him at either DB spot.

10. ARI - Jimmy Williams, CB, Virginia Tech
Dennis Green and the Cardinals are afraid that LB Ernie Sims may have a history of suffering concussions. Sims potential injury history will scare the Cardinals. Green, however, is not scared by potential character issues (see Randy Moss). Arizona takes a player with fluctuating draft stock in Williams who can help this team right away but has some character concerns.

11. STL - *trade* - BUF - Winston Justice, OT, USC
Buffalo is able to slide down a few spots and select Justice without making too big of a reach for him. Justice is yet another player with some questions about character. His performance at the Trojans workout day did improve his draft stock enough that he will be selected in the #10-15 range.

12. CLE - Haloti Ngata, DT, Oregon
Cleveland is thrilled to find that Ngata falls into their lap. They would like to select Ngata or Kamerion Wimbley here. Both players will help Romeo Crennel shore up the Browns defense.

13. BAL - Santonio Holmes, WR, Ohio State
Baltimore is disappointed that Winston Justice is off the board because they hoped to trade down with Dallas or Tampa Bay. Baltimore is stuck and takes the best player who fits a need. Holmes is more polished than Chad Jackson and should help Kyle Boller more than Jackson would. That said, don't be surprised if Jackson and Holmes flip-flop positions here.

14. PHI - Chad Jackson, WR, Florida State
Philly is also disappointed to see Winston Justice gone. They will take Holmes or Jackson here, whichever player remains available. They need to try and replace the playmaking ability of Terrell Owens.

15. DEN - *trade* - NE - Chad Greenway, LB, Iowa
Denver wanted to select Holmes or Jackson here. It's too much of a reach to grab Laurence Maroney here. New England is rumored to be interested in trading up. I would be shocked if Belichick and Company selected a wide receiver or running back this high in the draft. Greenway played under head coach Kirk Ferentz at Iowa, who is a Belicheck disciple from their days with the Cleveland Browns (now Baltimore Ravens). He's a natural fit for the Patriots here.

16. MIA - Kamerion Wimbley, DE/LB, Florida State
Miami is happy to select Wimbley who can help improve an aging defense under the guidance of head coach Nick Saban. Wimbley can play defensive end or outside linebacker in a Willie McGinest or Terrell Suggs type of role.

17. MIN - Ernie Sims, LB, Florida State
Minnesota doesn't get Jay Cutler but the Vikes do get a great value selection by taking Sims here. Minnesota seems to be a franchise in disarray under its new ownership. Trading Culpepper was a stupid move. Drafting Sims is a smart move.

18. DAL - Donte Whitner, S, Ohio State
Dallas doesn't get Winston Justice by trading up and can't reach for offensive line help here. They take second best safety prospect in the draft in Whitner.

19. SD - Brodrick Bunkley, DT, Florida State
The Chargers make it three Seminoles in four picks by selecting Bunkley here. The Chargers are a very good team that should have made the playoffs last year. They have the luxury of selecting the best available player, such as Bunkley, who could be drafted in the top 10.

20. KC - Johnathan Joseph, CB, South Carolina
Herm Edwards and the Chiefs need DB help to improve their defense. Last year's top pick, linebacker Derrick Johnson, will appreciate the addition of Joseph.

21. NE - *trade* - DEN - Laurence Maroney, RB, Minnesota
Denver is able to trade down and select the running back who best fits their zone blocking scheme. Maroney is a much better value at #21 than at #15. Denver could try to trade down further with a team like Jacksonville who could lose out on a top running back by having Carolina sitting in the spot before them.

22. SF - Manny Lawson, DE, N.C. State
San Francisco got an impact player on offense in Vernon Davis at #6. They get an impact player on defense at #22 in Manny Lawson. Niner fans and coaches should be happy with the first round.

23. TB - Antonio Cromartie, CB, Florida State
Cromartie is a bit of an enigma. He hasn't played that much due to injuries but has been brilliant in flashes. He has great measurables for a cornerback. He could be drafted in the late teens so he's a great value here for Tampa Bay.

24. CIN - Jason Allen, S, Tennessee
Cincinnati is a good young team. Allen fills a need and is a great value. If Dallas selects Allen at #18, look for the Bengals to take Donte Whitner here.

25. NYG - Tye Hill, CB, Clemson
The Giants don't have many holes to fill. They could use more help at cornerback and at receiver/returner. I wouldn't be shocked to see the Giants select Sinorice Moss here, but I think he's a bit of a reach. The Giants have no pressure to reach for a player and Hill is a better value.

26. CHI - *trade* - IND - DeAngelo Williams, RB, Memphis
The Bears need a tight end. The Colts need a running back. Any TE would be a reach here. Williams is a steal. This trade makes a lot of sense for both teams. If Indy doesn't move up, they will either be forced to wait for a running back in a later round or reach for Joseph Addai.

27. CAR - LenDale White, RB, USC
White was the #2 running back in the draft until he got hurt and got fat. I still think he's a excellent prospect and would love to see him in a Pats uniform. Carolina is in need of running back help and won't let White fall to Jacksonville.

28. JAX - Ashton Youboty, CB, Ohio State
Jacksonville would love to DeAngelo Williams or LenDale White. Unfortunately they won't. They select the best available player in Youboty. Bobby Carpenter is a possibility but he won't be as valuable to the Jaguars.

29. NYJ - Nick Mangold, C, Ohio State
The Jets got a franchise QB at #4 and they get him some protection here. Mangold is a solid selection for the Jets. Marcus McNeill wouldn't surprise me, either.

30. IND - *trade* - CHI - Leonard Pope, TE, Georgia
Pope is a good value here for the Bears. He's a bit of a reach if they stay at #26. Tight end is the Bear's biggest need.

31. SEA - Kelly Jennings, CB, Miami
The Seahawks could take Sinorice Moss but elect to go with his teammate Jennings. Seattle signed Nate Burleson to help their receiving core so Jennings makes more sense here.

32. PIT - Sinorice Moss, WR, Miami
The Steelers lost a great receiver/returner in Antwaan Randle El when he signed with Washington. They take his replacement here. Moss is a deep threat receiver with return skills. I doubt he will be as effective as Randle El when running the wide receiver pass-option play, though.


Whew, that's a long post. It took me a total of about five hours to finalize my selections and do the write ups. I haven't checked ESPN in hours and I'm not making any changes from here on out. This is my best guess as of the morning of April 27th. I look forward to doing this again next year.